October 30th, 2025
Question: Will Trump’s agreements with ASEAN hold?
Thought Process:
Tensions are mounting as questions arise over the durability of President Trump’s new trade and security arrangements with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). While the agreements promised renewed U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific, skepticism persists among member states over Washington’s consistency, motives, and long-term commitment.
1) The fragile diplomatic trust
- Southeast Asian nations remain cautious toward the U.S. following past policy reversals.
- Trump’s earlier withdrawal from multilateral pacts and his “America First” rhetoric have left regional partners wary of unpredictable shifts.
- While his administration touts new bilateral trade and defense deals as evidence of renewed engagement, ASEAN countries especially Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore seek assurances these won’t be abandoned with future political changes. The absence of a unified U.S. Indo-Pacific framework also raises doubts about how long the momentum can last.
2) China’s increased influence
- China continues to deepen economic and military ties across the region through the Belt and Road Initiative and defense cooperation programs.
- Trump’s tariffs and trade restrictions have pushed ASEAN states to diversify economically, but China’s proximity and steady investments make it a powerful counterweight.
- Many Southeast Asian nations prefer balancing both Washington and Beijing; however, the growing sense that the U.S. is using ASEAN primarily as a strategic counter-China tool risks undermining trust and regional neutrality.
3) There have been growing economic promises with lack of policy delivery
- Trump’s administration announced a series of infrastructure and technology investment pledges, but experts note that most have yet to materialize.
- Limited congressional approval and private sector hesitation have stalled project rollouts. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s digital and green economy sectors are growing faster through Asian-led partnerships.
- If Washington fails to deliver tangible outcomes soon, ASEAN may shift toward self-reliance or deeper engagement with China and Japan, reducing U.S. leverage in the region.