Background
Nicolás Maduro has maintained strong control over Venezuela in terms of their political and economic systems since the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013. This power has persisted even through the widespread accusations of corruption during the 2024 elections with the backing of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and the country’s security forces. For years, U.S. presidents have condemned Maduro’s regime, but Trump has taken this disapproval a step further by linking Venezuela to the flow of narcotics into the United States.
Recent Developments
In the past weeks, U.S. forces have carried out strikes on more than a dozen vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. These strikes specifically took place against ones that the White House claims were drug-smuggling. During these atrocities, there have been nearly 70 reported casualties. However, when asked if this indicated a move toward war, Trump said “I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.”
Military Build-Up
Despite Trump’s assurances, the U.S. military presence close to Venezuela has increased significantly. In fact, an aircraft-carrier group has been redeployed from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean. This group is even supported by naval strike forces and U.S. troops stationed just off the Venezuelan coast. Officials have suggested that the U.S. government’s next step could be targeting drug facilities inside Venezuela. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has been reported to have secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in the country.
The administration’s message represents their hope to pressure Maduro’s inner circle to abandon him while also signaling to the Venezuelan military that continued loyalty could come at a steep cost. Simultaneously, Maduro’s regime, which is heavily monitored by Cuban intelligence, makes any internal coup extremely dangerous for anyone involved.
Maduro’s Potential Fall
If a faction within Venezuela’s military or government removes Maduro, it would most likely result in U.S.-Venezuelan negotiations to install a transitional figure from within the regime for the short-term. This possibility could potentially repair relations with the U.S. government and stabilize the economy.
On the other hand, a less likely scenario would be the armed forces joining opposition leaders, such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo González, to call for new elections. However, this is unlikely due to the longstanding mistrust between the military and opposition.
Congressional Pushback
On November 6, the U.S. Senate narrowly voted down a resolution that would have required congressional approval before Trump could initiate military action against Venezuela. This measure was introduced by Senator Tim Caine, a Democrat in Virginia), and it failed 49-51. Kaine and other lawmakers pointed out that the administration’s justification for military strikes relies on an overly broad interpretation of presidential powers. Two Republican senators (Rand Paul from Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski) actually went against the position of most Republicans by voting in favor of the resolution while other Republicans argued that the president already has constitutional authority to combat narcotics trafficking.
What’s Next?
Trump’s next move remains uncertain. Although he insists that he does not want Maduro in office, the administration has yet to outline a long-term strategy involving future steps. Any direct U.S. military action could spark widespread unrest in Venezuela, a potential civil conflict, or even a humanitarian crisis. All of these possibilities could force the U.S. into deeper involvement.
Extemp Takeaways
- War powers debate: The Senate vote demonstrates the ongoing constitutional question of how much unilateral authority the president has to use force abroad.
- Regional stability: Military escalation could destabilize Latin America by increasing refugee flows and sparking global criticism
- Domestic politics: The Trump Administration’s hardline on this issue appeals to his “America First” base and anti-leftist Latino voters
- Precedent for covert action: The alleged CIA authorization marks a significant shift toward concealed operations that could expand U.S. involvement without formal oversight
Possible questions:
- How should the United States respond to growing instability in Venezuela?
- Is U.S. military involvement in Latin America justified in the fight against narcotics?
- Will U.S. pressure successfully remove Nicolás Maduro from power?
- How does U.S. policy toward Venezuela reflect its broader strategy in Latin America?
- Should the U.S. focus more on diplomacy or military force to promote democracy in Venezuela?