Question Brief – 5/14/25

DX – Kavin Selva

Will the tariff truce last between the United States and China?

First Thoughts – I know that the trade war between the United States started roughly halfway through Trump’s first presidency. The original justification for increasing tariffs was that China engaged in unfair economic practices, with issues such as intellectual property rights and trade imbalances becoming core issues. Although the current tariff truce promises to end the trade war, previous attempts at making peace in the same manner have failed. Therefore, my three points will focus on how the root causes of trade tensions between China and the United States still haven’t been addressed.

Answer: The tariff truce between the United States and China is unlikely to last because the root causes of the trade war haven’t been addressed.

1. Inherent Competition
   1. The United States and China have historically been long-term technological, trade, and geopolitical influence competitors. An article by the Center for Strategic Studies claims that these two countries are still in competition for influence, and trade is a crucial part of that.
   2. The constant competition between the United States and China means that any truce is often prone to breaking as their inherent interests clash. Additionally, conflicts such as Taiwan and the South China Sea make it harder for meaningful cooperation to occur.
2. Domestic Political Pressures
   1. Within the United States, politicians from both parties have increasingly pushed for an anti-China stance. This stance becomes even more pronounced during election years, with a BBC article from September of 2024 claiming Trump mentioned China 50 times in the ensuing rallies after the initial presidential debate.
   2. China also has its own desire to appear strong on the international stage. An article from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace claims that Beijing believes Washington is overstating its own global influence. Therefore, in order to maintain a semblance of control in the global order, both countries’ politicians are unwilling to yield.
3. Intellectual Property
   1. The Council on Foreign Relations voices that U.S. firms have consistently claimed that China unfairly uses intellectual property in order to gain an advantage in the global order.
   2. In a 2025 special report from the United States Trade Representative, it was shown that China had failed to make significant progress towards its promises of fair practice previously stated in their phase one deal.

IX – How can Somalia better protect itself from increasing environmental disasters?

First Thoughts – Looking at this question the first thing that comes to mind is that Somalia has consistently suffered from regional instability due to the civil war. Therefore the body of my speech will focus on how the civil wars effects have exacerbated current environmental disasters. 

Answer – In order to protect itself from increasing environmental disasters Somalia needs to focus on implementing policies that promote regional instability.

1. Building Early Warning System
   1. One of the key failings of Somalia’s response to natural disasters is their lack of an early warning system. According to the Copenhagen climate centre, Somalia currently has an extremely inadequate warning system.
   2. By implementing an early warning system Somalia would have the ability to save countless lives. According to the World Meteorological Organization, having an early warning system can reduce damages by roughly 30%.
2. Reliance on Monoculture
   1. According to Britannica roughly 3/5 of Somalia’s economy comes from the agricultural sector.
   2. Natural disasters centering around inconsistent rainfalls therefore have the potential to wipe out the economy in addition to food sources. Subsueqently it becomes crucial for Somalia to diversify their economy in order to protect themselves from natural disasters.
3. Environmental degradation
   1. Misuse of land has become an ever increasing problem within Somalia. Soil degradation and erosion have become primary causes for concern. An article from the United Nations Environment Program states that these problems have exacerbated the effects of flash floods,
   2. In order to better protect itself from natural disasters Somalia should focus on implementing policies that better regulate the use of their land. By limiting environmental degradation, Somalia can limit the effects of natural disasters.