IX – Eric Qian
Now that the Sudanese Armed Forces have recaptured Khartoum, is the civil war nearing an end?
This is a tricky prediction question, but I think it’s helpful to think about what makes civil wars come to an end. The Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces would need to negotiate a peace agreement for the civil war to come to an end, so looking at whether that’s happening helps answer the questions.
Intuitively, the answer is probably no–a war that’s been going on for two years isn’t gonna end out of nowhere. That’s why I ask myself “Why would the RSF and SAF keep fighting?”
- RSF still controls key areas
- following the capture of the presidential palace, the RSF still controls key areas in Western Sudan – eg. Darfur region
- that’s why the war isn’t over – the RSF has vowed to continue fighting (and also, their control of Western Sudan gives them a place to launch invasions from)
- RSF’s separatist motives
- RSF signs the “New Founding Sudan Charter” → their goal is to entirely replace the SAF government
- literally before the RSF even signed the charter, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the SAF, issued a public statement in opposition of it → they wouldn’t be able to agree on the terms of a peace deal (eg. who’s in government), so war’s not ending
- continued international backing
- Egypt supports the SAF because it sees the Sudanese government as key to stability with the Nile River; the UAE supports the RSF because the RSF smuggles gold to the UAE (profit)
- international backers haven’t changed their position since the SAF captured Khartoum
USX – Feven Tesfaye
Question: Should Tesla get a new CEO?
First thoughts: I immediately think about the shaky history of current Tesla CEO Elon Musk and the effects that his new position as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency has had on his long-standing strength in the tech field. Knowing this, I wanted to focus my whole analysis on how Musk’s new role directly challenges his strength in the Tesla network and the company’s success.
Answer: Yes, the current CEO Elon Musk is no longer driving the long-term success of the company.
After deciding to base my analysis on Elon Musk’s new government position, I decided to find ways that these last few months since getting his position have negatively influenced Tesla (these pieces of information will be my “b” points).
- Musk’s lack of focus on Tesla
- Musk has stated on numerous occasions that his new position has created overload and led to the stress of trying to balance both his CEO lifestyle and heading the Department of Government Efficiency.
- Tesla workers and investors are worried that Musk’s multiple commitments will lead to his focus being taken away from the success of Tesla, the main role a CEO should have.
- The world has already seen since being appointed in the DOGE Tesla’s market value has declined, and it’s been harder to have consistent sales.
- Growing backlash against Tesla’s products
- Elon Musk’s political involvement has made many Tesla users associate his political opinions and actions with Tesla.
- This has damaged the reputation of the Tesla company and has led to criticism and protests of Tesla products. In the long term, this will hurt Tesla’s sales when consumers feel like the political opinions of the CEO get in the way of them wanting to purchase products.
- There have also been Tesla users who vandalize others cars, illustrating the public’s discontent with Elon Musk.
- Having conflicts of interest
- Musk being the head of DOGE allows him to cut funds and resources toward different sectors of the United States. His position also allows him to work closely with national policies that are being created.
- This has raised ethical questions of Musk’s political alignment with national policies and how he will weigh his business relationships with politicians.
- For example, current tariffs hurt Tesla’s ability to import goods from other countries, so Elon Musk can’t impartially evaluate tariff policies.