The European Union is an essential bloc promoting peace and well-being for European citizens. In this discussion of EU Expansion, Sahana Srikanth analyzes Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova’s complex cases for accession.
What does it take to join Europe’s most exclusive club?
For nine hopeful nations, the answer is yet to come.
The EU is home to a substantial portion of the European continent. With over 445 million residents, the EU is a unique political and economic union of 27 countries. Member countries benefit from increased trading opportunities, democratic power, security assistance, and more. For example, in the past 2 decades, the EU’s economy has grown by 27%. The Polish and Maltese economies have doubled in size, Slovakia’s has grown by 80%, and the bloc has maintained €68 billion in agricultural exports. Economic cooperation under the EU’s framework is evidently bold and successful. This, atop the other promising opportunities the EU flaunts, has unsurprisingly led many non-EU countries to continue their case to join. The EU claims it is committed to enlargement and incorporating more members, but foreign policy experts suggest that the union’s budget would have to be substantially increased to support expansion. Poorer prospective members would complicate the available resources the EU is currently already stretched for. In this light, increasing the number of EU member states may only exacerbate the EU’s present situation. The question then becomes whether the benefits of accession outweigh the collective losses the bloc may face.
Regardless, the EU seems ready to take a chance on prospective members. Over 52% of people are currently in favor of EU expansion. These views are important to consider especially as the bloc aims to de-risk from China and counter Russian violence. As the citizens and leaders of current and prospective EU nations seek a world order diminishing authoritarian powers, any support they can secure will help them succeed.
So, who’s trying to join and what does the accession debate entail?
This fall, the EU reignited accession inquiries from nine recognized candidate countries: Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen toured the Balkans to discuss these countries’ progress towards joining the EU, evaluating whether they can adhere to core EU values and contribute adequately to the bloc. The process to join the bloc usually takes around a decade from membership application, and it depends on a variety of factors. Political will, domestic reforms, and national politics can all influence how long it takes for a nation to accede. Furthermore, according to the EU’s Maastricht Treaty, each current member state and the European Parliament must agree to any enlargement.
For example, the EU Council formerly endorsed negotiations with Albania, a recognized member candidate, but Bulgaria, an EU member, blocked Albania’s accession. Still, Albania continues to persist, holding its second accession conference in October this year to allow the EU to scrutinize the case of Albania’s bid to join. Albania has the potential to remain at the front line of EU bids this year, as confirmed by the EU ambassador to Tirana, the capital. The nation has worked hard to establish Tirana as a center hub of Western Balkan activity by holding crucial international events to establish itself on the world stage. Last December, Albania hosted the European Political Community Summit. The country has also expanded its education efforts with the College of Europe in Tirana, which includes students across various European countries. This progress has pushed them closer to becoming part of the EU.
On the other hand, nations like Ukraine have suffered a rockier and less uphill path for EU consideration. Ukraine’s quest to join the EU began in the early 1990s after Ukraine gained its independence. On December 14, 2023, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. Analysts inferred that Ukraine’s accession to the EU would lead to tensions with Russia and could escalate already volatile relations. Especially in 2024, given the prolonged battle between Kyiv and Moscow, provoking Russia will be a crucial consideration for Ukraine as it seeks to join the EU. Still, Ukraine has had a firm pro-EU parliament and leaders who link EU accession of Ukraine to fighting for democracy. In August 2023, a survey revealed that 90 percent of Ukrainians resonated with their leaders and favored joining the EU. About 1.5 years into the war with Russia, there was a 25 percentage point increase in this support among southern Ukrainians and a 28 percentage point increase among eastern citizens. Popular support for EU accession is evidently magnifying among Ukrainians, but Ukraine’s case is not as simple as a popular vote.
For a nation next to Russia, defense is a priority. Specifically, after NATO decided not to accelerate Ukraine’s accession to the military alliance, Ukraine’s leaders expressed the need for institutional support from a democratic union. Many EU governments hoped that EU accession would drive Kyiv’s NATO request away, simply for fear of crossing Putin’s red lines. Ukraine’s case is unique given that the EU has never had to attempt admission for a country locked in a major war without the backing of NATO’s security guarantees. Article 42.7 of the EU treaty reaffirms that the EU will offer member states a defense similar to that enjoyed by NATO allies, but the EU itself lacks an institutional military. Instead, offering Ukraine a political bloc would allow EU nations to continue expanding their financial commitment to Ukraine, and Ursula von der Leyen even suggested the EU provide 45% of Ukraine’s needed funding for reconstruction and recovery. These efforts may be in the interest of validating trust in the EU, given that ordinary Ukrainian citizens have seen the effects of fractured funding to their country. Reduced humanitarian and military support is diminishing Ukrainians’ trust in the EU and its institutional capacity, so the EU can reclaim its name by addressing institutional problems delaying the timely delivery of key aid to Ukraine. By enhancing support to Ukraine, the EU can champion its support for democracy and close the 31 year long ambiguity over Ukraine’s accession.
On a more recent note, Moldova held a referendum this October to assess the nation’s consensus on joining the EU. The margin of those who favored accession was thin, remaining at 50.46% of people voting Yes. This small, former Soviet republic is trying its best to shift away from Russia and detach from its Soviet satellite status. The nation says Russia spent €100 million on disrupting the referendum and a presidential election held at the same time. Of course, Moscow claims they were not involved and are calling for Moldova to prove their accusations. Russia is interested in Moldova because of Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova that houses 400,000 people. If Russia were to claim Transnistria, it would provide Putin economic leverage over Moldova as 90% of Moldova’s electricity is sourced from Transnistria. The Transnistria debate has persisted for over 30 years, but Moldova’s EU accession process has only lasted for 2. In 2022, they received official candidate status from the EU, and now send over 90% of their exports to the bloc. The EU incorporating Moldova would reaffirm that the bloc is willing to expand regardless of Russia’s assertion. Already, the EU has announced their support for the country’s integration by allocating €1.8 billion over the next three years for Moldova’s bid to join.
The EU evidently has quite a lot to consider when observing each nation’s case for integration. Accession bids are shaped by nations’ complex relationships with Russia, their needs, and their differing political climates. Albania’s work to establish itself internationally has pushed it closer to becoming part of the EU. Ukraine, hindered by ongoing conflict, is seeking EU membership to fortify democratic aspirations and secure financial support. Moldova’s recent referendum indicates an inclination for EU membership and a detachment from Soviet ties. The EU’s political commitments are tangible in helping these three countries achieve their goals. Their paths illustrate the nuanced dynamics of EU integration during a time of heightened geopolitical tension and solidifies the Union’s credibility across the continent.
While it might pose difficult, EU expansion presents the Union with a powerful opportunity to redefine Europe’s future by fortifying democratic values, resisting authoritarian influence, and creating economic resilience in candidate nations. Embracing new members like Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova can deepen the EU’s impact, reinforcing its role during an era of geopolitical challenges. The EU navigating each nation’s bid for accession will define not only the Union’s path forward, but also its legacy as a champion of unity and peace.