As election season has emerged in the United States, numerous voters, from seasoned partisan pundits to trailblazing young activists, have begun to ponder a critical question. Who will be our next president?
At first glance, this issue seems to be relatively easy to answer. After all, we have been told time and time again that opinion-based polling is the most reliable way to predict elections. However, this sort of data is neither accurate nor consistent. Alan Lichtman, a professor who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 stated, “They (polls) are snapshots in time, none of which has any impact whatsoever.”
From Truman to Trump, polling has famously failed to predict our future. Therefore, we must focus on other factors, which have been more accurate indicators for presidential elections. First, we must analyze Biden’s strength as the incumbent. Then, we must understand Trump’s fatal flaws as the presumed challenger. Finally, we can know how our past electoral results will translate directly into our future.
President Biden has been active in federal politics since 1970, first as a senator, later as vice president, and now as president. He has quite literally been in office longer than many of our Extemp judges and coaches have been alive. In that decades-long span, Biden has mastered the art of political maneuvering, posturing himself as the leader of his party and country.
To first focus on his role as the Democratic Party leader, it’s understood that no matter how seemingly unpopular President Biden appears to be, he never struggles with any significant internal opposition. Though Biden has received considerable backlash from his opposition and even allies over his stances on oil drilling and the Palestinian conflict, no one has dared challenge his authority within the party. The reality is that Biden is not facing any serious primary challenge. His strength is further emphasized by the fact that many top democrats, such as Gavin Newson and Michelle Obama, have refused to run for the top position. They have recognized Biden’s strength within the party, and would rather support him than oppose his reelection. Incumbent presidents are almost always favored to win the position so long as a recession does not occur. As long as the domestic economy remains stable, Biden remarkably is likely to win the White House once again.
Outside of his party, President Biden still holds strong as a prominent political leader. Though many Republicans in Congress disapprove of his performance thus far, it is evident that Biden still has significant strength. Entering office at the peak of both a recession and pandemic, Biden passed several notable pieces of legislation such as the CHIPS Act and a $1 trillion infrastructure bill with bipartisan support, to curb and eventually eliminate both of these issues. President Biden has been able to work with his opponents and has been able to produce success. It would be difficult for many Republicans to campaign against his policy stances if they supported them in the first place. Though at the time of writing, Republicans have launched a possible impeachment inquiry against the president, several Republican senators have stated that it will most likely fail.
Though President Biden remains fairly unpopular, due to the nation’s poor economic standing, he still nonetheless is favored to win against Donald Trump. Unlike President Biden, former President Trump seems to lack the decency and dignity needed to regain his old position at the White House. He has intertwined himself with a series of legal challenges, which may prove impossible to escape. All the while, Trump continues to harm his future through irrational blunders. To first focus on legal issues, it is to understand that Donald Trump already has an unusually poor legal record. He is the only American President to be impeached twice. In addition, last Spring Trump was found guilty of nonconsensually touching a woman, paying a $5 million verdict. This is only the beginning. Donald Trump faces 91 separate felony counts, related primarily to falsifying business records, mishandling classified documents, and interfering with the 2020 presidential election. It doesn’t matter how unpopular President Biden is if his challenger is serving a life sentence in prison.
In addition to legal issues, Donald Trump faces numerous political issues relating to his prospective running mate. An Axios Article from this month shows us all that Donald Trump seems to be prioritizing loyalty to him, rather than experience at their given position. For instance, he has contemplated choosing unpopular figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene or Tucker Carlson as a running mate. In predicting the election, it is probable to assume that if Trump were to choose figures such as this to fill his executive cabinet, he would surely have a difficult time gaining the White House in the first place.
Though President Biden and former President Trump’s performances will play a major role in the upcoming election, it is also worth noting just how the contemporary political climate may favor Democrats over Republicans. This is largely through Democrat’s efforts to pass substantial legislation and protect fundamental human rights such as bodily autonomy and marriage equality. Many at the time were predicting that the 2022 U.S. midterm elections would strongly favor Republicans. That a strong “red wave” would be the foundation for Trump’s hopeful reclamation of the White House. In reality, however, Democrats were able to upstage the election by retaining numerous seats while gaining ground in key states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona. This sort of Democrat support has continued into this year. The party boasted numerous personal victories by gaining House seats in Virginia and reelecting Governor Any Beshear in Kentucky.
Democrats gained much support primarily through utilizing a changing America. This is something that Republicans have failed to do for the past few years. In the 2016 election, Republicans succeeded by capitalizing on issues such as immigration and corruption. However, these issues hold little weight today. Instead of finding constructive ways to solve perceived problems, Republicans instead promoted bigotry against marginalized minorities, and ultimately achieved nothing of note Today, issues such as the erosion of bodily autonomy have taken the mainstream. These rights, or rather lack of them, have persuaded Democrats to increase turnout and, therefore, increase success in recent years. Though Republicans have attempted to defame Biden over economic issues, this has been largely futile. While Americans have struggled quite a bit through the past few years, their problems are slowly, but surely being alleviated. Whether American economic recovery should necessarily be credited to Biden or not, if these trends continue, we will likely see the reelection of President Biden.
All in all, through the analysis of recent data, it is probable to predict that Joe Biden will win reelection against his Republican opponent. Though President Joe Biden is fairly unpopular among many Americans today, he nonetheless has held a decent amount of support among not only his party but Congress as a whole. Thus, he is running virtually unopposed and has several key pieces of legislation to campaign on. On the other hand, Donald Trump has been categorized by scandal, and will potentially face criticism for his running mate. The current climate is currently favoring democrats, as was shown through the 2022 midterms. Please note that this article seeks to neither influence your vote nor offer a definitive prediction for the election. Rather, it intends to offer an educated guess, recognizing that our future remains undecided. To help shape our future, be sure to vote. Voting is imperative to not only expressing your ideals but also to help sustain and advance our democracy as a whole.