Question Brief – 10/23/25

October 22nd, 2025

Question: Can the federal shutdown erode public trust and key services?

Thought Process: The government shutdown is now nearing a month, and while Democrats and Republicans fail to arrive at an agreement on the budget, deadlock threatens services from various departments and agencies and the subsequent trust in those institutions and government.

1. Lay-offs
   1. The Trump administration has fired nearly 400k employees since January, in a downscaling initiative that President Trump continues to move forward with.
   2. This agenda has been further enabled by the Shutdown, as the Federal Government has begun sending out Reduction in Force notices (RIF) to its employees, laying off 4 thousand so far. 
   3. In some areas, this has rendered sub-offices and divisions in agencies severely understaffed and unable to carry out their duties, significantly impacting governmental functions with reverberations likely to be felt after the shutdown is resolved as well.

2. Political Polarization
   1. The political climate in America remains heated, and as divisions shape up in both the Republican and Democratic side of the aisle, disillusionment with the democrat’s notable inability to draw concessions from Republicans is shaping up the court of public opinion
   2. Democrats have held the line on the issues they’re advocating for amidst Budget negotiations, yet questions about a unified message persist, as leadership remains out of touch with constituents and other parts of the party.
   3. If anything, the shutdown has only encouraged disunity and political polarization, especially internally as both political parties vie for unity, but continue to sow internal division.

3. Essential Services
   1. Congress’s budget is responsible for funding a variety of essential services such as National Parks, Air Traffic Control and Federal Law Enforcement.
   2. Despite some of these remaining open, many major agencies like the National Park Service remain closed. Furthermore, as this shutdown runs its course, we begin to see the difficulty that’ll accompany the recovery from it, meaning essential services are likely to experience delays for extended periods following the shutdown in an attempt to make up for lost time.
   3. This’ll weaken our response and essential services, rendering significant dissatisfaction to constituents and weakening post-shutdown outlooks regardless of budget agreements.